The third paper in the France series examines the RN’s counter-budget as a set of measures the bond market must price. It separates the headline savings from what can be implemented, tests the assumed return to a 40–50bp OAT–Bund spread, and places the existing trading framework against the budget calendar.
From fiscal promises to market constraints
The paper works through thirteen measures carrying most of the projected improvement, asking who can block each one and whether a mechanism is specified. The author’s haircuts and interest-rate scenarios then test what remains of the fiscal trajectory.
The arithmetic behind €140bn
Gross measures, tax cuts, new spending and where the cost falls.
Thirteen lines, tested
Legal constraints, implementation gaps and the author’s assessment of deliverable savings.
The rate the plan needs
The assumed spread compression and the cost if borrowing rates remain higher.
The budget and the trades
The voting calendar, political scenarios and how they frame the existing level-triggered trades.
Full paper
Paper dated 12 October 2026; market levels use Friday 9 October closes. Classifications, haircuts and scenarios are the author’s, on the assumptions stated in the paper. Written in a personal capacity for a professional audience. Nothing here constitutes investment advice.