The fourth paper in the France series examines Édouard Philippe’s programme against his own 2% deficit target. It sizes the measures that can be priced from official data, separates the presidential programme from Horizons’ alternative budget for 2027, and asks how the sequencing of tax cuts and savings could shape the OAT–Bund spread.
What can be priced, and what is still missing
The paper assesses civil-service headcount, unemployment insurance, pensions, the proposed business deal and teacher pay. It then examines the social and health savings still to be specified, and the timing gap between measures that cost money immediately and those whose savings build over years.
Read alongside The Costing, the previous paper on the RN’s fiscal programme.
Pricing the named levers
The scale and timing of headcount, unemployment and pension measures.
The 2027 alternative budget
How Horizons’ budget-year proposals differ from the presidential programme.
The gap to 2%
What the target requires from social spending, health and growth.
Sequencing and the spread
Why the order of tax cuts and savings matters, alongside the budget and rating calendar.
Full paper
Paper dated 19 October 2026. Estimates and assumptions are the author’s, using the sources and method stated in the paper. Written in a personal capacity for a professional audience. Nothing here constitutes investment advice.